Skidetica /σχέδιο/ represents the process of converting subjective opinions into Bayesian statistical models.
Fritilaria represents the first implementation of skidetics in realm if value investing and by extension finance.
Simply put, Fritilaria calculates fundamental value of public traded companies.
Fritilaria takes user's subjective opinion and fits it to a predifined Bayesian model.
Predifined model represents a Bayesian model which is trained on recently published accounting data
In order to became a full model, Fritilaria needs your opinion.
Data extracted from publicly available data such as annual and quarter reports published by companies themselves.
Yes. They do. We create models what are based on ranges of values. It means that Fritilaria models take into account almost infinite number of macroeconomic scenarios (Table 1).
Median | Low | Upper | |
---|---|---|---|
Beta | 1% | 0.5% | 2.5% |
Margin | 25% | 15% | 35% |
Default risk | 10% | 4% | 12% |
Premium rate | 3% | 1% | 6% |
Cost of debt | 10% | 5% | 13% |
Fritilaria transforms user's subjective opinion into probabilistic model. Fritilaria mirrors user's outlook on a specific company. If user feels optimistic, then Fritilaria will provide optimistic results. User is in charge of reasoning and final conslusion. That's why Fritilaria is not a financial advisement app.
No.
No.
No. Fritilaria does not take into account company stock price. Fritilaria is immune to market mood swings, speculative news or any kind short-term volatility.